tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738485353871431380.post6806276865452904664..comments2024-03-23T13:15:48.445-07:00Comments on Crystal Prison Zone: How to Play a Prediction MarketJoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825531253125205466noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738485353871431380.post-64772669922740295112018-08-27T22:51:48.788-07:002018-08-27T22:51:48.788-07:00I'd be really interested to read how you forme...I'd be really interested to read how you formed an opinion on each study. Did you do rigorous research into related findings? The ones with the smallest sample sizes and weakest P-Values? The headline grabbers? Some intuitive mixture of the above?Dan Knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738485353871431380.post-2965861605390731132017-12-13T23:18:36.651-08:002017-12-13T23:18:36.651-08:00If you are risk seeking "diversify your portf...If you are risk seeking "diversify your portfolio" is bad advice. The rational thing to do is to maximize your expected utility, which in case of a convex utility function is to put all your money on ONE deal that is most beneficial according to your estimations. Just saying... there is no uniformly best advice, independent of risk attitude. ;-)Marcel van Assenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08459483740874064850noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-738485353871431380.post-30835508018326201432017-12-13T18:42:12.488-08:002017-12-13T18:42:12.488-08:00Wow. You earned your money. Wow. You earned your money. Ulrich Schimmackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03244014319857211622noreply@blogger.com